Nightly Crypto Report: Awaiting Confirmation of Next Move Lower
We do not have "confirmation" yet that the downside is still in play in Bitcoin and Ethereum. That comes with a corrective retrace that cannot break recent highs, then a breakdown. Confirmation is a bit of a dirty word in my view. As I say, certainty from markets at all times is zero. The trader must learn to live with probability, not certainty and focus on risk to reward edge, vs. continual directional edge.
But I want to say that the market can still break what I am currently seeing. I have $227 Ether, and $10557 Bitcoin as indication that the market may yet break toward that upper B wave. Yet, we have what looks like 5 waves off recent highs and barely a rally today. It looks like a nano wave 2 forming before wave 3 of our respective C's scares the living day lights out of crypto traders everywhere. Mark those levels.
I've refined targets in Ether and Bitcoin, and both aim close to key retrace levels of the move off the December low. While I'm "pre extending" the C wave, it is normal to see the big fibs operate as magnets. For Bitcoin that is the .382 $7855, and for Ethereum the .618 at $155. I will intently watch for the entire correction end there, but if an impulse forms, I will be cautious.
GBTC was very weak. Man, it looks like it wants to gap down. So, I'm counting it in a 1-2,i-ii setup. But we'll know more tomorrow.
ETHBTC now is well progressed in this third wave down, continuing to remains much weaker than ETHUSD, and BTCUSD together.