Negative Mood Pattern, Bearish Market Projection for Next Week

There was no defined Market Mood Indicator (MMI) calculation for the mood pattern Thursday.  However, it appeared to go from one associated with uncertainty and confusion on Wednesday to a more serious tone on Thursday, which was also a "flip" day.  I was not certain how that would play out on an "uncertain" MMI day.  The market started out with a gap down, then "flipped" up and ended strongly up from the lows. 

Where We're Heading:

Friday's mood pattern is associated with the perception of negative news, data or facts, and MMI is down.  The weekend (Monday open) MMI is mixed and too close to zero to call a direction.  However, Sunday's pattern is breakout or breakdown, so a break through a range type move could develop late Sunday / early Monday.  MMI gives this move a slight edge to the upside.

Internet search theme MMI inputs are man, writer, stars, movie, past, controversy, support, business, and cutback.

Next week is week three of a three week mood pattern implying government associated instability and/or geopolitical concerns.  This pattern most often is associated with bearish market moves, and as a reminder, the final week of a multi-week pattern is when it's most likely to show up in the market.  Next week as well as the following week would be the most likely time for news events related to this theme to show up.  It would appear that this is not a good time for complacency!

As for gold and the USD, charts are showing gold as extremely oversold and the USD as highly overbought, so a move to correct that condition could occur at any time.  Yet, for Friday, the gold signal is "undefined," and there are no clear USD trade signals.  

The crude oil chart still implies topping, but is not yet showing a clear trend on the daily scale (weekly has been clearly down).  There is a daily sell signal for Friday.

Dr. Cari Bourette is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where she provides her proprietary market mood analysis in our flagship service, "Avi's Market Alerts."