In the U.S. indices, the two most likely scenarios for the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), according to our Bayesian Timing System (BTS), are as follows:
In the first scenario, with a Bayesian probability (BP) percentage of 34%, the SPY, with a temporary low reached on Oct 29, pushes towards 278-282. Above 282 points next to 290-295, followed by a turn back to 258-262 before the correction ends. This path assumes the bull market continues and SPY will be greater than 330 within 12 months.
In the second scenario, with a BP of 30%, SPY bounces and correctively moves within the 270s, before heading back down to the low 260s. It then reverses back up to 275ish before falling again to 260ish and finishing the correction.
In metals, the BTS still leans towards a break higher out of this consolidation in the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), with a press to 120-123 still looking most likely.
A vibration window is forming for late the week of Nov 5 that seems to carry important significance and another one forming for the week of Nov 12. A vibration window is a moment in time that serves as resistance or support in price, usually manifesting as a relative high or low in price. I interpret this as some type of “triangle” that will be resolved most likely in the opposite direction of vibration high or low when it is all said and done, which would be a long if it plays out.
On a micro level, the low in GLD on Oct 31 (114.66) could be challenged yet one more time (and even exceeded), which would set up a strong false breakdown reversal and a multi-week run higher.