Mixed Signals In Metals

The different charts are giving me different signals.  So, let me review what I am seeing.

First, GLD may have a small 5-wave move off the low, which is better seen in the gold futures.  If that is the case, and we get another extension higher, then I have to assume it is simply an extension in wave iii, and not the start to wave v of [3].  

Second, GDX has enough waves in place to consider all of its wave [ii] as completed.   Yet, the move off the low is overlapping. Of course, it could be starting its next rally as a leading diagonal, but that is not reliable enough for me to turn uber-bullish just yet.

Third, and this is the one that is a bit contrary, silver seems to have a downside set up in place for a c-wave within its 2^nd wave.  As long as we remain below the b-wave noted on the 8-minute silver chart, this downside set up remains intact.  But, should we see downside follow through, then the extent of the 3^rd wave extensions will tell us if it is going to be the c-wave of wave ii or of the larger degree wave 2.  If we see the deeper c-wave for wave 2, then I will likely have to move our target for wave 3 up a bit relative to where it is right now on the 144-minute chart, likely to a minimum target of 35.

Of course, if silver is able to break out over its b-wave high, it would invalidate the set up as shown, and potentially open the door to the next rally.   But, as with GDX, the move off the low is overlapping, so I would not be able to rely upon it yet to turn uber-bullish in my short term positioning.

In summary, I am still concerned that we could see further weakness in the coming week or so in the metals complex before the next rally begins.  But, if we can begin to take out resistance over the coming days rather than seeing a downside follow through, then we may be able to consider this pullback as complete.