Micro Path Looking Higher

While I still can make the case that this is a micro wave iv retrace in the Emini S&P 500 (ES), I also can make the case that we already have 5 waves up off of the 4365 low and into the 4417 high. 

So, as Avi noted, support for the wave iv comes in at the 4395 level, and if we break that level then we no longer can reasonably consider this a micro wave iv and would be left with this being a larger retrace. That larger retrace would then either count as part of the wave (2) that I am showing in green or the purple wave b that is part of the larger triangle that Avi laid out yesterday. 

Under both cases, we ideally should see another higher high over the 4417 level, and both cases have support in the 4397-4377 zone.  But, of course, the green path is more immediately bullish. 

We would, however, need to see a strong break back over the 4422 high to give us an initial signal that we are indeed following through under the green path.  Should we fail to see that level cleared, then it likely puts us in that larger purple triangle.

ES 847 15m
ES 847 15m
Michael Golembesky is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader covering US Indices, the US Dollar, and the VIX. He contributes frequently to Avi's Market Alerts service at EWT while also hosting his own VIX Trading service.