Metals Still Consolidating - Market Analysis for May 13th, 2020

While we have yet to see the break out we are all looking forward to, the metals charts have simply been consolidating over the week. 

Let me start with the GDX.  Again, there is still a valid 1-2 structure that has developed in May.  However, we have yet to trigger the i-ii upside set up for wave 3.  At this point in time, I have to give primacy to the 32.10-32.90 region as support for wave 2.  As long as that region holds as support, I am going to be looking for a 5-wave rally back up towards the 35-36 region for wave i of 3.  However, if we cannot hold 32 as support, then it likely means we are moving down into the pivot on the daily chart, and this corrective pullback is tracing out wave iv of [3].  Lastly, please also realize that if the market does move closer to the lower support box, then I will be lowering the market pivot on the 8-minute chart, as it represents the .618-.764 extension of waves 1 and 2.

As far as the GLD, it has been extremely sticky.  It did not even hit the a=c in the 156 region yet.  And, should we break out in this posture before seeing one more downside leg, it can be interpreted in two ways.  Either this was a 4th wave triangle, which means upside may be limited to the 170 region.  Or this was a w-x-y 2nd wave correction , with the y-wave tracing out as a triangle itself.  That is a very rare pattern, but if we see a strong move through the 170 region, then this is what we will have to adopt.

As far as silver is concerned, it has a micro set up in place to break out.  As I noted before, as long as we remain over the 15.20 region, this can begin the heart of a 3rd wave off its lows.  However, a sustained break of that region would suggest that wave [2] has not yet completed.

So, while the metals often require the patience of Job, we have no choice but to allow them to complete this current corrective pullback before the next rally phase takes hold.  But, please recognize that once GDX breaks out through its pivot on the 8-minute chart, I think the entire complex will “likely” be rallying, with the potential for silver and all the laggard mining stocks to be leading the way.  The set up is certainly in place for it.  But, PLEASE let the set up trigger before you turn aggressive on the long side.

GDX-8min
GDX-8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLD60min
GLD60min
GLDdaily
GLDdaily
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.