Metals Still At A Crossroads


There still is not much I can add to what I wrote on the weekend.  But, here are the additional points.

First, the GLD has finally broken out over its downtrend line which has kept price in check since the high in September.  While this chart presents the strongest argument for a low to be in place, I would still prefer it to take out it’s 1.00 extension off the low in the 184 region, and continue on to the 191 region to complete a full 5 waves for wave 1 of v of [iii] to turn aggressively bullish in the coming months.

As far as the GDX is concerned, I am still VERY cautious of this chart until we are able to exceed last week’s high.   As long as we remain below it, there still remains potential for that dreaded lower low.  However, if we can break out over that level in the coming week or so, then I can begin to view wave i of [5] of 3 as a leading diagonal.   Within that structure, wave [iii] of i would point us up towards the 44 region, with all of wave i pointing to the 46 region in the coming weeks.  But, again, we MUST break out over last week’s high to even consider this potential as a stronger probability sooner rather than later.

Lastly, as I highlighted over the weekend, silver is kind of in between GLD and GDX.  I am quite open to the bottom being in place in silver, but would prefer a continuation up to the 26.25-26.90 region to complete wave 1 of [iii] of v of [3], as you can see from the attached 144-minute chart.

In summary, I am still quite bullish in the metals complex as we look towards 2021.  However, the market has not made it abundantly clear that the low for the respective 4th waves have completed.  We need just a bit more evidence to be more confident.   Until then, I will still maintain a bit protective.

But, the one last point I would like to add is that we have seen the metals begin major rallies in the last few years after a very amorphous initial climb.  So, I cannot discount the resumption of the next rally phase simply because some of the pattern to the upside have not been ideal.  But, as I just noted, I do need a bit more evidence to be more confident.

GDX8min
GDX8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLD60min
GLD60min
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.