With the current pullback we are seeing, I think it is making it clear that the wave iii has completed in the various charts we follow. So, we have a solid pullback taking shape.
In the GDX, the ideal target for this wave iv begins in the 21.50 region, and can drop as deep as the 20.50 region.
In GLD, as long as we hold over the 121.90 region (.382 retracement of the 3rd wave), then I am expecting one more rally to be seen before we complete wave [i] off the lows.
Yet, silver seems to taking a more circuitous route in its pattern. Right now, it seems that the best count is as a [c] wave within a b-wave of a [b]. I know it sounds quite complex, but I think this pullback may turn a bit more complex in silver. But, the current ideal target in silver is the 15.60 region where [a]=[c] in this micro move down. And, again, I am going to maintain an alternative that silver, too, can see a higher high in a 5th wave, similar to the way the rest of the charts in the market suggest we can see.
Lastly, it seems quite clear that the NEM only has the leading diagonal potential for wave 1 off the lows. And, ideally, we should hold the 33 region if this is the appropriate count. However, a sustained break of that region opens the door to the alternative count as presented on the chart, with the outside potential of still seeing that elusive lower low. For now, that lower low is not my expectation.
At this point in time, since the GDX, GLD and silver are rather clear and straight forward, I will not be providing any further coverage on the NEM, as I was only using it to the extent the other charts were not clear. Since GDX is rather clear at this time, I will not longer be providing NEM coverage. But, if you do need coverage on specific miners, feel free to follow Zac and Garrett’s work in our Miners Portfolio service on Elliottwavetrader.net