Metals Market Is Trying To Prove It Is VERY Bullish

So, this week, the GDX has now taken us to the upper end of our resistance in the 23.30 region.  And, it does not yet seem to be giving up much ground.

Moreover, both silver and GLD have now pushed through their respective upper resistances, which certainly opens the door to the various charts having completed their respective 2nd waves.

Now, I want to remind you that it is one thing to take out resistance, but it is another thing to complete 5 waves up off the recent lows.  I have outlined many times that we still would need to see 5 waves completed off the recent lows to put a much more immediate bullish spin on this market, and potentially set us up to break out in the heart of a 3rd wave sooner rather than later.

For now, the more immediate bullish interpretation is that the various charts seem to still be within their respective 3rd waves off the lows.  And, I will use the GDX as my proxy, since it is the most precarious of the charts at this moment.  As long as the GDX holds support over the 22.60-22.85 region noted on the 8-minute chart, I am looking for a break out through resistance as was seen today in GLD and silver. 

However, if GDX is unable to hold that support on all pullbacks until we complete 5 waves up for yellow wave (1), it would be the first sign that we are heading back down to the 19 region for the potential ending diagonal we have been tracking for a more protracted 2nd wave pullback.

Moreover, I have to note that, if we continue in this immediate bullish trend, silver may outperform on the next move since it has to most ground to cover to catch up to standard targets for wave (v) of iii.

Lastly, I want to caution you that I still do not believe it is time to get exceptionally aggressive in this market.  Rather, the point in time to get VERY aggressive (meaning options and leveraged fund trades) is if all of wave (1) completes, followed by a corrective pullback, and then a strong break out over the high of wave (1).  THAT will provide a strong signal that the market is progressing in the potentially parabolic 3rd wave for which we have been waiting for all of 2017.  Yet, until that time, I am going to be cautious of further surprises the market may have in store. 

For today, I cannot help but recognize that the strength in silver and GLD thus far has been positive, as long as we are able to hold all respective supports for wave iv.  But, a break down in the coming days, especially below 22.60 in GDX, would not bode well for the more immediate commencement of the bull market in metals.  So, while the GDX has still not broken through its resistance, I am going to maintain some amount of skepticism for now, but would be quite pleased if the market could provide itself in the coming week or two by completing wave (1) in yellow.

GDX-8min
GDX-8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLD 8min
GLD 8min
GLDdaily
GLDdaily
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.