We have been patiently awaiting the complex to drop down to the ideal targets we had set for this pullback. And, recently, all products have basically struck those targets for their respective 2nd wave pullbacks.
Moreover, if I move into the micro count on the GDX, I can even count a very nice 5 wave structure off the lows, wherein the wave iii of 3 struck the 1.236 extension, wave iv of 3 pulled back to the .764 extension, and then saw stronger than standard extensions in the 5th waves, with the GDX almost striking the 3.00 extension off the lows.
But, remember, this is a micro structure, and can always be a c-wave in a bigger and more complex wave iv of the c-wave. Therefore, the market will have to pullback correctively over the next day or two, and then rally strongly over the highs we struck today, and blast through the 22.50 region to provide initial indications that a much bigger rally may have begun.
The issues with me being much more forcefully bullish are due to the rally in GLD, which seems overlapping, and almost non-existent in silver. While silver has certainly provided us with a textbook bottoming structure with an a=c drop, and almost perfectly supportive positive divergence, we still have no indications of any rally off this region.
So, for now, we have some initial suggestion of the bottom may have been struck. Yet, we will need to see a pullback followed by a break out over the top of the 5 wave high to solidify a bottom is in place.