Metals Have Still Not Given Up The Ghost

While the potential for the dreaded lower low still remains on all three charts I primarily track, I think the GDX will provide us with the clearest picture based upon its current structure.  So, this mid-week update will be primarily focused on that chart.

As you can see from the attached 8-minute chart, the GDX has momentarily broken over the 41 resistance, but has since moved right back below it.  So far, the move looks like a 3 wave decline.  Therefore, I can make this quite simple.

As long as the GDX remains over 39.46, we have a micro 1-2 set up for an extended 5th wave in yellow wave [iii] off the lows, which would point us to the 44 region just for wave [iii] of wave i of [5] of 3.  However, if we break that support, it again opens the door for that dreaded lower low.

As far as GLD and silver are concerned, I can still consider them in their 1-2 structures off the recent lows.  However, if GDX will break below its micro support, I would have to strongly consider that the entire complex may see that dreaded lower low.

In the meantime, I think the 39.46 level will be important in the near term.  And, if the market should continue to rally over the high struck yesterday in the GDX, I think we are likely heading higher to complete wave [iii] of wave i in the GDX.  But, should we see that rally, I think that GLD could potentially outperform as it would have a much longer way to go in order to complete its wave 1 in the 190 region.

Lastly, keep in mind that it is this 1st wave off the recent lows that we are awaiting before we can begin to strongly assume that we have begun the next multi-month rally in the metals complex.  So, for now, I still remain cautiously optimistic, as we should have our answer about a potential lower low or not shortly.

GDX8min
GDX8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLD60min
GLD60min
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.