Metals At A Crossroads

As I mentioned over the weekend, we started the week with a solid downside set up in silver, with a micro 5 waves down from the end of the prior week.  Even though we have seen follow through to the downside, the pattern has not been terribly impulsive. 

So, it leaves me with giving further downside follow through the benefit of the doubt, until we see silver able to take out at least the 16.58 level and GLD take out 116.65.  That would be an initial signal to me to turn short-term neutral on metals, with a move over the 16.90 level in silver and 117.10 in GLD making me look for the bigger wave ii set up in silver, and b-wave set up in GLD.

However, as long as we remain below resistance, silver can break down below 16.07, and should it follow through below 15.55/65 support, then it will likely retest the 2014 lows as we discussed over the weekend.

BaseCase - GLD Daily
BaseCase - GLD Daily
BaseCase - Silver 144min
BaseCase - Silver 144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.