Metals Are Such A Tease
By
Avi Gilburt
With a very full corrective pullback into the lows we struck weeks ago, I incorrectly assumed charts such as the GLD have already completed their 4th wave pullbacks. But, the action this week clearly proved that wrong, as GLD has hit a marginally lower low this week.
At this point in time, I still think the GLD has at least one more poke lower before we complete a VERY full [a][b][c] corrective pullback. In fact, it looks like we need a 5th wave down to complete this [c] wave, with the 170-173.50 support as the main support region below us.
As far as silver is concerned, it can actually hold its lows struck weeks ago, with the same spike lower presenting as the c-wave in wave [ii] in silver. So, I am not going to assume that silver will certainly see a lower low.
The question really comes in with GDX. As I outlined over the weekend, I would have much preferred that it take out its 42 resistance region in more direct fashion to make it more likely that we have completed wave [4]. However, the market chose to drop down to the retracement target I highlighted last week. Yet, as I discussed in the weekend analysis, this [i][ii] potential structure does not really fit in with the larger degree structure, wherein wave i of [5] of 3 should really not go higher than the 46 high region we struck in August. So, this really makes me question the yellow count potential, as it really does not fit well within the larger degree structure, unless wave i will take shape as a leading diagonal.
This has significantly increased the potential that lower lows will be seen in wave [4] for the GDX. And, as you can see from the daily chart, it is still well within the “bull flag” we have created on the daily chart. Moreover, we are seeing positive divergences through many times frames, including the daily chart. So, the larger degree structure is still suggestive of another bullish rally phase to be seen, yet lower lows are certainly well within reason before that occurs.
While it seems I was premature in my bullish expectations for GDX, I still do not think we are terribly far off. Many of the individual mining charts are setting up rather bullishly at this time, yet we may still have to bear with a bit more weakness before the next rally phase begins.
