Metals Are Oh So Close

With today’s reaction in the market, the metals went right back to their highs of last week.  But, it really seems as though the best count I would have is that this is still part of a b-wave within a 2nd wave.  As I noted this morning, I still have no clear impulsive structure up into the high today, so I am primarily viewing it as a b-wave rally in GDX and GLD.

As far as silver is concerned, its structure is a bit odd.  But, if it has really turned bullish, it would make sense.  Allow me to explain.  The b-wave of the wave [ii] we have been tracking was an expanded b-wave, which is often an indication of a bullish market in the bigger perspective.  Moreover, the c-wave down was rather shallow and short relative to the a and b waves.  But, again, this can happen in a very bullish structure.

Moreover, the rally which topped so far today seems like a micro 5-wave structure off the wave [ii], as I have it currently counted.  This means that we can still see a bit more pullback/consolidation in wave ii, as shown on my 144 minute chart.

But, the main point that I am making is that while we seem to be very close to a break out, the purest in me is still looking for a bit more pullback before that break out materializes.  But, should the market move through the pivots noted on GLD and GDX, please do not get in the way of the upside, as it will likely turn into a powerful rally.

GLD 8min
GLD 8min
GLD-daily
GLD-daily
GDX-8min
GDX-8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.