Metals Are A Mess

I think we have been rather clear in our perspective that the decline we have been seeing in GDX and GLD has not exactly been a clear impulsive c-wave down, as we had wanted to see.  Yet, nothing has invalidated the potential for us to be heading to our lower targets for such a c-wave decline.

At this point in time, I can at least take off the alternative i-ii in yellow in GDX, since we have broken below the bottom of the initial move down into the end of February.  This leaves us with two potential counts – our primary and our alternative in GDX. 

We have now dropped down to the target box on our 8-minute chart.  And, due to the overlapping nature of the decline, it is hard for me to be certain whether it has yet completed.  Remember, the ideal target for this decline was an a=c into the 23.60 region.  Thus far, we have only reached the c=.764*a, which is the minimum expectation I would have in this structure.  As long as we remain below the top of the downtrend channel (just below the 27 region), then I will expect we can attain the ideal target. 

However, if the market begins an impulsive rally off today’s low, it will make things just a bit more complex.  As I mentioned, we have hit the minimum target for a wave ii and the top of our target box.  So, an impulsive rally can begin the wave iii.  Yet, since we did not attain our ideal a=c target, it is possible that the rally is simply a larger [c] wave in a more expanded b-wave structure.  To be honest, I see that as a much lower probability at this time, especially since we have struck the minimum target for a wave ii.  So, should we see an impulsive rally now, my primary count will be presented as a bullish count, with the alternative remaining as the blue count. 

Yet, despite GDX having taken us to our target, GLD has been lagging in its ability to correct.  In fact, GLD has remained stronger than all the other charts for months now.  So, I cannot say that I am extremely surprised.  But, if the GLD has already completed its 4th wave, as shown in yellow, the [1][2] bullish structure for wave 5 is actually pointing higher than my target.  Depending on where wave [2] would bottom, this can point as high as the 180 region.  So, I am not completely sold on this potential just yet.  It would take a break out over the 160 region to make me a believer. 

As far as silver is concerned, I am still preferring to see that 5th wave lower.  But, if we see a rally to set up the next i-ii, then all bets are off, and I turn bullish again.

GDX-8min
GDX-8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLD 8min
GLD 8min
GLDdaily
GLDdaily
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.