Market Update - Market Analysis for Apr 14th, 2019

I will be in and out for the next few weeks through the Passover holiday, but I wanted to at least post my general perspective on the market at this time.

For those that do not know yet, I track the market through a lens of market sentiment.  And, in order to do so, I utilize Fibonacci mathematics to identify the main potential turning points within the market.

As I noted in my last update, the 2910/15SPX region was a resistance region for me at this time.  Currently, support has now moved up to the 2865/85SPX region.  If the market is unable to break down below that support, then the door has opened to rally as high as the 3011-40SPX region.

But, overall, I have a hard time viewing that the next bull market move to 3500+ has begun in earnest.  Rather, I still think this rally is part of a larger degree corrective structure, and, yes, even though it can make a higher high.

You see, my original target for the last segment of the bull market rally was the 3011-3040 region, from which we came up a bit short.  When that happens, we often see the market rally back to up to strike that original target, even within a larger degree “corrective” structure.

So, at this time, I still think that we will likely head back down to the December 2018 lows, but the exact path is what I question.  Moreover, I have a hard time viewing us as already being within the final rally to 3500+ for many reasons, one of which being our Bayesian model calculating a 75% probability that we are still within that corrective structure to which I have been referring. 

Lastly, I want to warn that there is not going to be any near term downside trend change until we see a sustained break below the 2865/85SPX support region.  Should that occur over the coming week, then we can begin to make plans about the expected path down towards the December 2018 lows again.

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.