I've been sorting through a number of different puzzle pieces on various timeframes, trying to get one single congruent picture, yet it still seems that some key pieces are missing. Starting from information from the daily data and zooming out, this is what I am looking at:
1) Major Low Approaching – When sentiment (measured via the MarketMood Indicator or MMI) and market price drop far enough and fast enough this generates a Major Low signal. We got one last week that a major low was approaching, with the highest likelihood between September 20 – 27. It’s been a long time since we’ve seen one of these. The last time was for September 9-16, 2021. It was good as a signal for a major low approaching, but the actual low was beyond the given window. The market made a first low on September 20. This was followed by a bounce and new low on October 4 after which a new uptrend ensued through early January of 2022.
2) Weekly Local Low – The weekly chart (see below) is anticipating at least a local low around this coming week. That fits together well with the expectations of a Major Low by 9/27.
3) Monthly Mismatch – There are two possible monthly charts which should be narrowed down to one at month’s end (there's still a full week left in September as of this posting). Neither chart is especially optimistic about the month of October, although the first chart would be experienced as a lot more negative than the second. Neither one is consistent with what one would normally consider a “major low.”
4) Pattern of Crisis – Perhaps most concerning is the September-October “crisis pattern” showing up in the monthly social mood component charts (not shown). In the context of what is currently happening in the world as of this moment, if there was going to be a major, crazy escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we would expect to see it within a pattern such as this. If there was going to be major civil unrest, such as what is already being seen in Iran and Russia, we would expect that within a pattern such as this. October should be quite interesting news-wise, if not world changing.
I’ve been waiting for the pieces to fit together neatly, and realized that I have to accept that I just don't have them all and October is nearly here. I don’t know how to reconcile a “major low” with “crisis” and a chart that is pointing down for possibly another month or so. Perhaps the monthly chart will later show itself to have been less than exact. Perhaps the major low will turn out to be delayed as it was last year. We will all get to watch together and find out as the pieces fall into place.