Lower Low Will Be Decided Soon

With the rally we have seen over the past week, the market has just about completed the 4th wave bounce we have been expecting.  And, in fact, silver may have begun its 5th wave down already, whereas GLD and GDX MAY try to get one more higher high before they begin their decline.

To be honest, there really is not much I can add to the analysis, so this update is going to be rather short.

Silver’s resistance should be this week’s high.  If we rally over this week’s high, then we may have a potential leading diagonal off the lows, so the probabilities begin to shift towards potentially having the bottom in place.

GLD resistance is the 178.50 region, with the maximum resistance at 182.  Over 182, and I think we will likely complete wave 1 of v of [iii].

Lastly, the GDX remains below the important 39.70 resistance level.  If we see a move through the 39.70 level, we may still be in wave 4, as that can still be a c-wave in wave 5 within an ending diagonal of the c-wave of 4.  But, once we move through 40.20, probabilities start shifting towards a bottom having been struck.

So, as it stands right now, I am looking for a lower low in the complex.  But, we are really close to a significant bottoming in the complex, please do not view the lower low as a slam dunk as we prepare for the next major rally in the complex.

GLD60min
GLD60min
GDX8min
GDX8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.