Just An Observer - Market Analysis for Oct 25th, 2023


As I tried to explain in the weekend update, there really is nothing to do right now in the metals complex.  I do not see it as a great opportunity to trade small moves, nor do I have a strong indication to be trading that to the long side or the short side.

Right now, we are resigned to being observers until the market provides to us a clear 5-wave rally off the recent lows.

The GC chart seems to be the cleanest structure of the ones we are tracking.   Where we stand right now, I would love to see us extend higher this week for a more extended wave 3.  But, due to the action we saw today, there is potential that the current rally is only a b-wave in wave 4, meaning that wave 3 is already done, as noted by the alt 3 on the chart.  

However, I slice this, I need at least one more rally before I can consider us to have completed 5 waves up.  And, I would really like to see it extend to the pivot noted on the 60-minute chart.  

I am in the exact same place on GDX as well.  And, it seems to be lagging, as it is still quite a ways from its pivot. I suspect that is likely due to the NEM underperforming – which is something I strongly suspected could be seen in this next rally.

Now, this leaves me with silver.  And, it is really not behaving rather well.  It really is not providing us with a Fibonacci Pinball structure in this rally.  This still leaves the potential for the yellow wave 4 topping.

The question is how do we confirm wave 4 has topped?  Well, unfortunately, we would not be looking for a 5-wave decline since a 5th wave in an ending diagonal takes shape as an a-b-c structure, and a-waves are rarely 5-wave structures.  Therefore, we need to wait until we break down below the low of green wave 2 (21.90) before we have a strong signal that we are dropping in yellow wave 5.

So, right now, there is nothing to do.  It is really just a waiting game to see if the market will complete 5 waves up off the recent lows or not. And, it still may take us another week or so before this would complete.  

GC60min
GC60min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
silver-144min
silver-144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.


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