The metals market is simply shaking everyone on both sides of this market. It is truly setting up a bigger move in the near term, and my directional bias is still “up,” based upon all the factors I have identified multiple times in many of my weekend udpates. But, the question remains as to the “when” this market will finally react.
As we sit here over 118 support, the immediate pattern still points higher in a i-ii structure, as shown on the 8-minute chart.
However, the main reason I am writing this update is to prepare you emotionally if this set up does not hold. I want you to look at the attached daily GLD chart so you can understand for what I am preparing you emotionally.
Most in the market do not trust this rally right now. Those that have remained bullish have remained so due to the double bottom at 117.40. However, in the event that we do break below 117.40, I would view that as a 5th wave in a very extended c-wave down, as presented on the daily chart.
Again, based upon the bigger perspectives I am tracking, which I have outlined many times before, I think that even a break down below 117.40 will likely provide us with what most view as a “false” breakdown, and set us up for a strong reversal once the remaining longs stop out after that double bottom breaks.
Support below us is in the 114-115 region, and I would not expect a break below that region if I am correct in my assessment – assuming we even break below 117.40. But, please remember I still need to see a bigger (1)(2) structure develop before I am on “break-out-watch.”
So, the purpose of my update this morning is not to tell you that that I expect 117.40 to break, but, rather, to emotionally prepare you in the event it does. For now, as long as we hold that 118 region, we still have a micro i-ii in place looking higher. But, a strong break of the 118 region will certainly increase the potential of breaking below 117.40, for which you need to be prepared more so emotionally than anything else. In fact, when I write updates like this, they often mark the bottom. :)