Let me start out by saying that I do not see anything strongly bearish in the chart. While I can certainly be wrong, the most downside I see at this time is for a c-wave down in the metals charts.
This makes this update quite simple. As I noted over the weekend, we needed to see a strong break out over 31.65GDX to suggest we have begun the heart of a 3rd wave up. Today, the market peeked out over that level, but it was hardly what one would consider to be a strong move through it. Moreover, the move up was not the clearest of impulses, so it really leaves open the potential to head back down to the blue box for a c-wave of wave (ii). A break down below 30.60 should seal that deal.
As for silver, the market moved strongly through the 20.08 level, and it did so in what looks like an impulsive structure. So, while the GDX has me leaning towards seeing a c-wave down, silver seems more like it has completed its downside.
This takes me back to GLD, for which I have been saying for several weeks now that I do not have a solid micro count.
So, it takes me back to the title of this update: Unless I am completely wrong in my read of the market, I think it is only a matter of time before we see the break out to take us to our next higher targets. While it can certainly happen as early as tomorrow, it may push out until next week if the market still needs a c-wave down.
My suggestion to most of those that follow our analysis is to maintain a bigger picture perspective on the charts, and remember that as long as we remain over support on the larger degree, we are going much higher before we see any form of bigger correction/consolidation.