It's Time To Do Something

For the last 5 trading days, silver has been in a sideways grind.   And, it’s about time for it to do something.

As you can see from the attached chart, I am considering the current set up as a (i)(ii) structure to the downside to complete wave v of 3.  Of course, when you have a sideways grind as we have seen, it can easily lend itself to other interpretations.  But, for now, this one seems to be the most “reasonable.”  But, there is another count with us still being in the wave [ii] after a leading diagonal complete at today’s low, which can allow for one more push higher to complete the wave [ii].

But, the main point right now is that as long as we remain below 23.52, I have a reasonable set up to look down to the next lower target box on the 8-minute chart.  Also, the main reason it is so large is because I am unsure how extended wave v of 3 will get. We will have that answer as we see wave [iii] of v develop.  And, clearly, the more extended wave 3 becomes, the more likely we can strike the 1.00 extension and [a]=[c] target in the 21 region, as we can see being the bottom of our target box on the 144-minute chart.

As we can also see from the 144-minute chart, the MACD is presenting us with a bottoming indication.  The next lower low will likely come on a positive divergence, which supports our bottoming expectation.  

But, again, I want to warn you that the next drop may be all we get, and that is why I have an “alternative bottom” noted on the chart.  So, it would be a good point to add positions if you are so inclined.

Of course, if the market should instead break out over the 23.52 level, then it opens the door to the potential of the yellow [b] wave triangle.  But, for now, I am still keeping that as an alternative in the back of our minds.

As far as the GDX chart, well, I am still unable to consider a high probability bottom as having formed already.  And, so, I am still seeking that lower low.  But, as with silver, I do not think it is prudent to be focused on the small potential amount of downside that may be seen, when the larger degree structure is strongly indicative of bottoming.  

Unfortunately, GLD is not terribly clear to me in the micro structure.  But, the overall technical picture also suggests a bottoming structure is developing.  

So, for now, I think silver is still giving us the best picture as to how we can bottom in the near term.  And, unless we see a break of resistance in the coming day or two, then I am going to continue looking lower for at least one more lower low.