Is COIN Headed Below $100?

In the April episode of my Coinbase series, I asked the question of whether the February lows will hold. I expected them to hold until circle-B is completed, and so far they have. However, despite an attempt to reach my B wave target between $230 and $300, this month’s rally failed at $222. 

On one hand, the failed rally confirms that COIN remains locked in a major correction that may ultimately take it as low as $59. However, it also opens the question as to whether circle-B has already completed, and COIN is ready to drop below $100. 

Growing Complexity

Over the years of writing about markets, I have discussed how B waves often end up more complex than can be predicted, and the current B wave in COIN appears to be a perfect example. At the moment, it appears that May’s rally topped in wave-b of (b) of circle-B. That is a mouthful commensurate with how convoluted the structure in the COIN chart has become. Complexity also moves key levels. In this example, it formed a new support level at $154. If broken, it should start a COIN dropping below $100.

Looking closer, wave-c of (b) projects to at least $162 and as of writing, is barrelling downward in the third wave of said c-wave. We should know soon whether COIN can hold somewhere between $154 and $162. COIN could arrive in that zone by next week. 

In the backdrop of poor price action, crypto media has been excited. Particularly, articles and pundits have suggested that the passing of the Clarity Act would be bullish for crypto as institutional interest increases. Suggestions have been made that it would soon end the crypto bear market that started in late 2025.

On the other hand, Coinbase’s trading volume has continued to decline through 2026. That portends a difficult environment for Coinbase’s growth path. That also suggests that crypto sentiment is less rosy under the hood than the media lets on. 

Patiently Accumulating

While the outlook for circle-B is now mixed, dependent on whether $154 holds, the big picture is the same. I am long-term bullish regarding the price of COIN as long as it is over $59. And, the large degree wave-ii, of which circle-B is only a subwave, is a great opportunity to pick up COIN on the cheap before a multi-year rally takes it to five-digit prices in the next decade or two. 

Despite that, $59 is a long way down if one were to be all in at these levels. This is a terrible trade location if we are currently sitting roughly in the middle of the expected range of COIN's price over the next few years. Buying some for corrective rallies is fine. Putting on large positions is out of the question. Patience is required. I have stated to my subscribers that I am ‘trading the big spaces’. I want to be very long COIN under $100, light as it gets closer to $200, and perhaps even short over $300. I want to avoid getting chopped in the micro machinations of COIN. That is at least the case until it is clear it is ready to break over $400 on a sustained basis. It is far from signalling such a move. 

Conclusion

In short, B waves are difficult to trade and have a tendency to slice up both traders and investors. What Elliott Wave analysis offers is an expected range in which the price is likely to move. What Elliott Wave is often unable to do is predict how much noise a B wave can produce within those constraints. Most of the time, B wave structures are more complex than expected. The best advice I can give is that if you intend to accumulate COIN as I do, you must muster your patience. Avoiding aggressive positions is number one. Secondly, you must wait for extremely low-priced opportunities before you increase risk. If you practice both of these disciplines, this correction should be trying yet rewarding.