Is A Lower Low Out Of The Question Now?

Well, to answer the question in the title, I would say “no,” but the action we are seeing in GDX has made it more likely since we have broken through 77.

So, let’s start with GDX. In order for us to see a lower low, I had to come up with a VERY creative count. And, when I say a “very creative count,” it means it is not something I would be trading aggressively. Rather, it simply means that if we are blessed with a lower low you would simply add more positions to the long-side.

That creative count is centered around us being in a b-wave for wave 5 in an ending diagonal c-wave, and the b-wave is taking shape as an expanded flat. I will repeat what I posted earlier today:

“The move through the 77 region on GDX serves as a warning to those that are looking for the perfect low. It will not likely appear in this type of overlapping structure. In fact, there is potential that the low may now be in. The only "reasonable" path I am seeing for a lower low now is that this is an expanded b-wave in wave 5. But, that is NOT a reliable structure upon which I would be trading aggressively. 

At this time, I cannot say we have a completed 5 waves up, but will be watching to see if that is what we complete. Ideally, I would like to see a CLEAR 4th and 5th wave in this rally to make that highly likely. Now, since we also know that the (c) wave in the expanded b-wave in yellow would also be 5 waves up, the resolution will depend on whether the decline after a 5-wave rally is impulsive (the yellow c-wave to lower lows to complete wave 5) or corrective (as a 2nd wave corrective pullback after the first 5-wave rally. 

I am going to continue to reiterate this over and over - PLEASE focus on the best opportunities in individual mining stocks.”

Both silver and gold still have potential for this being a 4^th wave flat. And, I have noted those as primary counts. But, I think there is just about an equal probability that they have completed their downside. So, please consider any shorting you are thinking about VERY carefully. I think the great majority of you should be focusing on adding long-side positions rather than shorting for lower lows, unless you are VERY nimble.

Below is a combination of posts I made regarding gold and silver earlier today:

“While I am still tracking a potential for a lower low in silver, I want everyone to recognize what the upside is, EVEN IF THIS WILL ONLY BE A CORRECTIVE RALLY. I would expect at least a .618 retracement, but would not be surprised if we went back to the highs. I cannot narrow it down more than that at this time. 

In other words, our target is 97-123 (60-100% appreciation even in a corrective rally). . . 

Same scenario for gold puts us at a target of 5050-5500 . . .

As you can see, best upon the best available information to us at this time, mining stocks offer the best bang for your buck, followed by silver and then gold.”