I Still Retain A Healthy Degree Of Caution In Miners

While gold may be rallying the GLD is still not exactly what I call blowing my socks off.  Yet, since it is the ETF I have been tracking here, I still have to note that as long as we remain below 159, I see the same potential for a c-wave down similar to the miners, or even a wave [2] retrace similar to silver. 

But, with silver taking out the prior week’s high, it has now provided us with what can be viewed as a 5th wave off the recent lows, as shown on the attached 144-minute chart.  And, assuming we remain in the blue box and do not rally through it, then I will expect a wave [2] pullback, which can be a very bullish set up for silver.

But, this brings me back to the miners, and neither the GOLD or NEM charts have provided me with additional bullish indications.  Rather, we still retain the same b-wave potential top in both those charts, which portends a c-wave drop in the coming weeks before a major rally in the miners takes hold.  And, until we see something invalidate that potential, I have to retain this view as my primary expectation at this time. 

So, as I noted over the weekend, there is not a lot of room in the GOLD and NEM charts to be able to retain this view, and that region has now narrowed further. 

Overall, I still expect to see weakness in the coming weeks, but as you can see from the various charts, the extent of that weakness really various across the charts.  And, other than silver, not much has changed in my expectations since last week.

GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLDdaily
GLDdaily
GOLD
GOLD
NEM
NEM
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.