I Can Only Give To You What I Can See

I am presenting you with three charts, all telling me somewhat different stories.  So, I am just going to get into the charts.

Starting with gold, while I can fashion an argument to claim that this b-wave has completed, I cannot say that I would wholeheartedly believe it.  It would have made much more sense if the market had begun this decline from the February 11^th high in impulsive fashion.  Then I would be able to more strongly consider that this b-wave has concluded and the c-wave has begun.  

But, that is not what we have seen.  Rather, the decline is clearly 3-wave structures, which leaves the door wide open that the (b) wave of the b-wave may not yet be done.  That is presented in purple on the GC chart.  And, if I see a 5-wave decline structure begin in the coming days, then this would add to the probability of this path.

The other option is that we are dealing with a (w)(x)(y) pattern for the b-wave, which is also shown on the GC chart.  What is not shown are two or three other potential paths I can consider, and there are likely others I cannot foresee at this time.  

Again, I am going to remind you of this because it is so true: Trying to outline a high probability path within a b-wave structure is often akin to throwing jello for distance.   As b-waves are the most variable waves within the Elliott Wave construct, it makes outlining the path they take the most challenging aspect of Elliott Wave analysis.   So, often, we have to wait for the market to provide more clues before it becomes evidence how the b-wave will take shape.  And, this is no different.

Silver has significantly lagged the other charts and I am still of the opinion that it is more likely that we will still see another rally in the coming weeks.  But, it is no different for want of a solid path within this b-wave.  And, as with gold, it is likely best to maintain a bit more patience to allow more of the pattern to become evidence to allow us to narrow down the many possible paths I could outline to you today.  But, let me repeat:  I think it is still more likely that we will get more of a rally in a (c) wave, but whether it has already begun, or if there is more action for a (b) wave is still a big question which I am unable to answer at this time.  So, my apologies, but there is only so much I am able to foresee, especially within a complex structure.

GDX has been the most bullishly acting of the charts, and still retains a potential 1-2, i-ii to the downside.  But, because we have retraced so deeply in the potential wave ii, it certainly has placed some doubt in my mind about this path. So, I am going to need to see immediate downside follow through tomorrow or else it tells me that this b-wave is ongoing, with some potential that it is also an extension still within the larger degree wave 3.  But, almost all the individual stocks I have seen in this complex, along with GDX, really are begging for a 4^th wave pullback.  So, I will personally not be a buyer back into this complex until one is seen.

So, in conclusion and unfortunately, there really is not a higher probability view to which I can point across the complex other than two points. First, it is likely that this b-wave in gold and silver are not yet done, and can still push us higher in the coming weeks.  Second, it is not likely that this larger a-b-c structure has completed.   Therefore, I think it is a reasonable expectation to seek a set up for a larger c-wave decline in the coming weeks, which may present us with a shorting opportunity, which can then set up a long opportunity once that c-wave completes 5-waves down.

Therefore, it leaves us wanting for something that is so difficult for most investors and traders in the market:   PATIENCE.