How Much Lower For TLT?

I think this pullback in Treasuries is strongly confirming of our wave 2 lower within the larger wave (3) up after the awkward leading diagonal. Now the question becomes:  Is this all of 2 or only the a of a wider/deeper 2 as shown on the TLT chart?

We know that normally leading diagonals are followed by wider and/or deeper retraces than "normal" wave 2's, and that they then lead to stronger third waves, but our setup here is also "nested."

This means that this LD for a wave 1 is inside a larger (3) that began off the June lows.

TLT - Primary Analysis - Aug-12 0831 AM (1 hour)
TLT - Primary Analysis - Aug-12 0831 AM (1 hour)
@US# - Big Macro Clean - Aug-12 0927 AM (4 hour)
@US# - Big Macro Clean - Aug-12 0927 AM (4 hour)
@TY# - Primary Analysis - Aug-12 0925 AM (4 hour)
@TY# - Primary Analysis - Aug-12 0925 AM (4 hour)
@US# - Big Macro Clean - Aug-12 0926 AM (2 hour)
@US# - Big Macro Clean - Aug-12 0926 AM (2 hour)
Zac Mannes is a senior analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net and co-host of the site's Stock Waves service, which provides wave alerts and trade set-ups on individual stocks.