Holding Twos - Market Analysis for Mar 24th, 2021
By
Zac Mannes
SPX is still holding a high 38.2% retrace so far and our "yellow c" can actually count as a ver muted 5 wave ED there already.
In ES the proportions allow for a micro 4-5 still in a slightly larger ED for the yellow c but the other major difference is that ES looks more like RTY's blue ED while SPX looks more like the 5up for (i) that RSP and NQ have as in a regular impulse.
NQ did not yet invalidate the potential i-ii start to (iii), but despite getting what looked like a 5th up of the earlier yellow b it was dragged lower under the 61.8% for that smaller ii at the end of the day as RTY stretch more. It too can get a micro 4-5 now in the yellow c.
RTY's got the micro yellow 4-5 we were looking for from yesterday and that extension in the 5th is what put pressure elsewhere. If it can put up a strong showing tomorrow holding today's low we have a nice (i)-(ii) of our blue ED there. If the "micro 4-5" in ES & NQ cause more feedback then RTY might get forced into a new low toward 2055 as an expanded flat for alt circle iv of 3. Had I held all my IWM BFs from 2340s I would have been a VERY happy camper today, but I got cute at the "a" and did not add back as much when it started to break in the 3 of yellow c.
RSP also allows for an extension to the 136 for a 61.8% retrace but it is not needed.
Meanwhile the Dow is holding a high small degree ivth inside the (iii) of circle iii.
ES did get a top dot on the daily PSar, so we are likely to spend a few more days under that before flipping back to bottom dots but it does not mean the floor is about to fall out.
