Hitting Resistance - Market Analysis for Jan 11th, 2023
I would love to provide an update that says something different in the metals. But, alas, I cannot say my picture has changed. But, we are closer to resistance boxes in all the charts.
As you can see from the silver chart, we have been hitting our head on its resistance for the last month, while both GDX and GLD have been slowly making their way to their respective larger degree resistance regions. And, yes, I still think it would be a much cleaner chart to see silver get more of a pullback before I think we are ready to break out in a major way.
As for me, coming down into the box will likely get me to buy an initial long options positions, with a 2nd one planned on the wave 2 pullback in wave 3, and a 3rd tranche to be bought on the ensuing break out over the wave 1 of 3. So, my plan is set.
As far as GLD is concerned, well, in going back for many years, I have not seen a 3rd wave begin with a MACD posture as the one we are currently seeing on the daily GLD chart. Will this be a first? Maybe. But, since we deal in probabilities here, I cannot say that he probabilities side with wave  taking hold without more of a pullback.
While GDX's daily MACD has provided more of a pullback, I still think this needs a bit more to be in a posture to support a true 3rd wave that I expect to take hold this year.
So, for now, I am simply riding my long positions, and waiting for the opportunity to add aggressive long side positions. I will not do so until I get the lower risk set up I want to see. So, I am going to be a bit more patient. But, nothing has changed my expectation for a major rally to be seen this year.