Highest-Probability Path (Higher) Winning Out Again

Signals went long last week, and I pounded the table for members to "buy it if it ain’t nailed down."  On 4/8, I held hands for newer or timid members to get them full allocated…if you aren’t at least in one of these trades, then sigh.

Let’s discuss aggregated probability paths:   (1) [P=19%] SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) stalls out in the 270s and tumbles back to the 210-220s more directly, (2) [P=54%]  SPY grinds its way thru the 270s and finds its way to the 285-295 region before the next decision will be made, (3) [P=27%]  SPY stalls in the 250-270s region in a choppy, nearly untradable range.

Bottom line:  The highest probability path does appear to be winning out again, and has led to one of those perfect trading weeks = boring and very profitable.

LONGER-TERM LONG POSITIONS UPDATE:  I’ll leave this here another few days, but last week provided a potential pullback low with prices that may not be seen again anytime soon.  As I wrote: “Today (4/1) I will begin scaling back into my longer-term long positions, because in probability terms, 'the bottom' is most likely in.  Depending upon market action, it is my intention to get back into 100% of my longer-term positions on this current sell off that could see as low as 240 (and possibly even a quick reach into the 230s).  When getting into longer-term long positions, I err on the side of 'getting in' versus 'getting the best tick penny price.'  From before: As I’ve said before, below 200 is 'bad for longer-term bulls' and targets the 170s and possibly lower as we begin a multi-year bear market.”

Apr9AviBayesGDX
Apr9AviBayesGDX
Apr9AviBayesSPX
Apr9AviBayesSPX
Apr9AviBayesUSO
Apr9AviBayesUSO
Apr9AviBayesDXY
Apr9AviBayesDXY
Luke Miller, who has developed a Bayesian timing system for trading the stock market, hosts two Bayesian timing premium services at ElliottWaveTrader.