The one thing you will ALWAYS get from me is an honest assessment of the way I am seeing the market. And, in the metals market, we are usually quite accurate in being able to identify the turning points. Yet, while the bigger picture remains bullish, the smaller degree is not at all clear.
I have wanted to see more of a 2nd wave pullback across the complex, and have made that no secret. But, when the market declined last week in a 3-wave structure, it left us without a clearly impulsive decline that we normally would see in a c-wave decline. Therefore, the only potential for a c-wave in a bigger 2nd wave would either be as an ending diagonal, or a much more complex w-x-y pattern.
So, as we stand today, I am still unsure if the market is going to give us more of a pullback or not. In other words, nothing has really changed since the weekend update. But, we know our upside trigger points, so we have general parameters in place.
For now, I am leaning towards lower rather than an immediate break out. Yet, I have no clear structure to make that a high probability. We will just have to maintain a bit more patience.