Getting More Interesting - Market Analysis for Aug 5th, 2026

With the move today, the metals market is certainly getting more interesting.

GDX has now moved beyond its 1.00 extension off the lows, which MAY suggest this is a 3^rd wave in a leading diagonal. Yes, I know I am not a fan of leading diagonals. But, if we do complete one here, I would strongly consider it as the first wave in the next major move higher. But, I will need to see a CLEAR corrective pullback thereafter before I am willing to add the remaining amount of cash I am holding.

At this time, I would like to see a corrective pullback in wave (iv), followed by a higher high in wave (v), which should ideally target the 87 region. Thereafter, it will be a corrective pullback that will allow me to add my remaining cash.

However, should we fail by either starting a 5-wave decline from this region, or a 5-wave decline from the completed potential wave i, then it still leaves the door open for lower lows in GDX before this correction completes.

Both silver and gold have also invalidated their respective potential triangles that I have been tracking. But, that does not necessarily mean that the larger degree rally has yet begun. You see, the rally thus far has been corrective looking. That can either be a corrective 4^th wave bounce leading to a lower low, or it can be an initial a-wave in the larger (b) wave rally. The problem is that they both look the same and are indistinguishable at this point in the structure. And, that is why I have been relying more so on GDX for a signal.

At this time, I can still allow for a small 4^th and 5^th wave to take us a bit higher before we may see a top here. Moreover, I have to slightly adjust the gold resistance up to the 4400 region.

For silver, I have to adjust its resistance due to the lower low made the other day. So, we are sitting right before its first resistance at 63.12. Should it break out through that and follow through beyond the 67.10, then that would make it highly likely that silver has begun its larger rally, which is expected to add at least another 50% to its price, with a minimum target of 97. But, as I mentioned before, I think a better target would be the 107-124 region.

While I had been leaning towards seeing lower lows until today, I am now at 50/50 as to whether those lower lows will be seen. I am still holding cash for that potential. Otherwise, I will deploy that cash on a corrective 2^nd wave in the various mining stocks once a first wave higher is completed.