Fundamentals Played Out — Now Sentiment Runs the Show

Fundamentals Played Out — Now Sentiment Runs the Show

For years, the case for precious metals miners was a value story. You could point at the balance sheets, at the price of the metal in the ground, at the gap between what these companies were worth and what they traded for, and you could say with some confidence: this is too cheap.

That argument has run its course. And you do not have to take my word for it.

Lyn Alden, whose fundamental work I respect as much as anyone's in this business, put it plainly this week:

"When it comes to precious metals and their miners, I view sentiment as running the show right now.

Since 2018 I've had strong fundamental views on them (bullish), and those have fully played out. Rather than being structurally undervalued as they used to be, I now view them as within a wide fair value range. That gives less fundamental conviction and asymmetry, and instead means they shift more toward trading and rebalancing."

Maybe read that again, because it is a rare thing.

An analyst with a genuine fundamental edge, telling you the edge has done its work. The deep undervaluation that made the call stand out is past. What is left is a wide fair value range — and inside a range like that, the fundamentals stop pointing. They tell you the company is neither a steal nor a trap, and then they hand the wheel to something else.

That something else is sentiment.

When value goes quiet and the fundamentals stop arguing, price does not stop moving. It still rises and falls. It still trends and reverses. It is just no longer being supported by the cheapness — it is being driven by the crowd. By emotion. By the structure those emotions carve into the chart.

And here is the good news in that. A range that frustrates the value investor is exactly the environment where sentiment analysis continues to earn its keep. When the fundamental signal flattens out, the structural signal is all you have left — and for those of us who read it, that is not a loss. It is the whole game.

So let’s turn to CDE. The fundamental story in the metals sector has played out, just as Lyn shared above. The question now is what the structure is telling us on some of the individual names.

Sentiment Speaks

Zac and Garrett have actually put together a list of 41 tickers with compelling setups showing up on their respective charts. Today, we will simply feature one of those.

Nuances. That is our focus at the moment. Yes, across the sector it is setting up for a rally into 2027. Some names will outperform the benchmark. And some names may have already found their lows while yet others are yet searching for just that.

Specifically for CDE, note what Zac is showing here. One of the key points to take into account is that the wave 3 rally reached the 1.382 extension of the initial 1-2 off the lows. Wave 4 is currently in the process of completing. 

This last segment shapes up very much like an ending diagonal for the circle ‘c’ of 4. What’s more, price seems to be in the wave (v) of that ‘c’ of 4. What does this tell us? Once this portion completes, perhaps in the $13-$15 range, the reversal should be obvious. 

The other reason to feature CDE as a setup is where price would probably seek overhead should wave 5 reach a typical extension in Fibonacci Pinball. Since wave 3 hit the 1.382 extension of the 1-2, wave 5 possibly even hit the 1.764 which is at the $49 area. Even if price only were to reach the 1.618 extension for wave 5, that projects to $40-$41. 

All of this to say that the risk-to-reward here is flashing favorable in this name. Price should not break the $12 level for this to remain a near term bullish setup. And, keep in mind that we are currently watching many other setups at various stages of their own structures. 

Conclusion

So here is where it leaves us.

The fundamental case for the metals miners has played out — Lyn said it plainly, and she would know. That is not a reason to look away. It is a reason to change the lens.

CDE shows you why. A wave 4 finishing as an ending diagonal, a wave (v) of 'c' likely completing somewhere in the $13–$15 range, and then a reversal that should not be subtle. If wave 5 extends the way wave 3 did, the upside is not measured in points — it is measured in multiples, with $40–$41 a reasonable target and $49 the higher end. Against a line in the sand at $12, that is the kind of risk-to-reward that earns a featured spot.

But hold the nuance, because it is the whole point. This is one name out of forty-one. Some have already turned. Some are still digging for a low. The sector is setting up for a move into 2027, and the structure — not the cheapness — is what will tell us which names lead and which lag.

That is the work now. Value handed us the wheel. Sentiment is driving. And the chart is the road.