Five Up For The U.S. Dollar?

This week, the DXY continued to push higher and gave us what can be counted as five up off of the 97.46 low. With that move, I am now leaning toward a bottom being in place for the wave 2, which has been laid out in white on the charts. So as long as we can hold the low at the 97.43 low, I would expect to see higher levels in the weeks ahead. 

Smaller-Degree Structure

With what I can count as five up off of the 97.43 low I am going to give the benefit of the doubt that we have put in a larger degree bottom in the wave 2 and have begun the larger wave 3 of c up. From here, we should hold over that 97.43 low and continue to push higher over the 100.64 level to further confirm that a bottom is indeed in place. 

If we move back under that 97.43 low then support for a deeper wave 2 remains in the 98–96.61 region, and as long as we continue hold this zone, then the white wave 2 count will once again become the primary path forward. We would then need to see a five-wave move off of this support zone, followed by a break over the 100.64 level, to confirm we have begun wave 3 up. 

Should we see a break of the 96..61 low, followed by a break under the 96.11 level, then it would open the door to seeing yet another lower low as laid out per the purple count. For now, however, and as long as support holds, I am going to continue to look higher per the primary white count.

Larger-Degree Structure
From a larger structural perspective, I continue to maintain two primary scenarios, both anchored to the October high, either as the white wave (3) or the green wave (5) of ((A)).

In the white count, we are tracking a corrective wave (4), potentially unfolding toward the lower boundary of the trend channel, with a diagonal forming for wave (5) in the next phase. If that lower boundary holds, especially near the 95.60 region, it sets the stage for a rally to develop in wave (5).

As is typical with diagonals, we may see overlapping, choppy price action that could make distinguishing between the white and green counts difficult in the early stages. The key will be in the structure of the next decline after this rally: if it unfolds as a corrective move, the white count would be favored, implying further upside potential in the years ahead. However, if that decline is clearly impulsive (i.e., five waves down), that would suggest the green count is taking hold, with the October of 2025 high already marking a significant top.

A sustained break below both the trend channel and the 95.60 level would substantially increase the probability of the green count. Still, as always, structural confirmation—especially in the bounce and follow-through—will be essential before committing to either scenario