First CABPCR alert.
By
Zac Mannes
I am on alert.
The CABPCR has reach .29...
We have a proportionate move over the wave 3 that when we zoom out can appear to be a complete wave 5 of (1) that looks perfectly reasonable as wave (1) of Primary 5.
Looking at the smaller degrees though for both SPX & ES (Micro & Nano tabs), the c of 5 should really get at least a (iv)-(v) higher, and ideally in the ES we get another micro 4-5 to complete the (iii) a little higher first. 3060-3040 is key support for any reasonable expectations higher, but if that holds the (v)th of c of 5 in ES can still reach for 3160.
There is still meat on this bone and no support has broken, the CABPCR is also better at identifying "extreme" bottoms and can even get embedded at low levels for a while. But traders should understand that the skew for R:R is rapidly shifting. We have a subewave count inside the c of 5 that allows for ~100pts of additional upside potentially, but at Minor degree it is possible to see the 5th as completed "enough". The downside expected for (2) is pretty substantial. With the low 2500s the ideal 61.8% target support that is >500pts South. That is NOT the same as SETUP for a short yet, but certainly justification for tightening stops on longs to levels that should not be breached if we are to continue higher in this pattern and maybe even start to plan some proactive exits.
Since we are tracking this wave (1) as a Leading Diagonal it is likely the wave (2) drags out it's ABC in a relatively wide pattern, but since our wave c of 5 is an Ending Diagonal the initial reversal of that once support breaks can be a bit violent. I think that will be the a of A which could target the 2950 region more rapidly on a break of the 3040 region.
Garrett & I still see a number of individual charts with solid setups for additional upside, these could be the drivers of the next +100pts, but we are also seeing other charts getting ready to "rest" some.
