Final Squiggles in Metals
By
Avi Gilburt
As I have been outlining for several weeks now, we have some really nice positive divergences set up on the higher time frame charts, suggesting the metals complex is likely bottoming out.
The questions I have been having is how deep do the GDX and silver charts take us?
Well, when I look deeper into the GDX chart, I am seeing us in a final 5th wave of its c-wave, which is taking shape as an ending diagonal. And, even within that diagonal, I am questioning how deep it takes us. I am following two micro counts right now. If the a-b is in place as shown in the yellow count, then we have a [1][2] structure pointing us down for a 5-wave c-wave extension at the bottom of our target box in the 27 region. The micro resistance box on the 8-minute GDX chart is the resistance for the deeper yellow c-wave potential.
However, if the market is able to break out over the micro resistance box, then it is likely we will complete this [b] wave at the upper end of the target box (if we have not already bottomed). But, ultimately, I need to see an impulsive rally through the 29.30 level to provide us with an initial signal that a bottom is in place. That break out through 29.30 will likely point us up towards the 31 region for wave 1 of wave [i] of the next major rally phase in the GDX I am expecting to begin once we complete this bottoming structure.
The reason I am looking for the 31 region as our target for wave 1 of [i] is because that is where this ending diagonal began. And, when an ending diagonal completes, we often see a very strong reversal back to the region from which it began.
As far as silver, the structure to downside also looks like an ending diagonal for the c-wave of wave [2]. And, I would still imagine we can see a marginal lower low.
With regard to GLD, well, there is nothing to add. The structure is overlapping and I do not expect any impulsive rally in that chart. The next move higher will likely be an a-b-c structure for the 5th wave of the expanding ending diagonal.
In summary, I think we are in the final squiggles of the decline in the metals complex. And, when we see a strong reversal in both GDX and silver (both of which are in ending diagonal structures), then we will have a strong signal that a bottom has likely been struck.
