Eyeing ES/SPX 4200 As We Head Into Month-End

Heading into today, we want to buy all intraday dips when price action above 4150 on the Emini S&P 500 (ES), with the eventual target of 4200. If price action cannot even dip below overnight low 4163.75, then it’s very bullish.

If below 4150, then short-term momentum is changing and Friday’s low of 4127.5 becomes at risk. We would need to adapt to the structure as it either becomes another round of consolidation or it’s a false breakout that turns into a violent bearish breakdown testing last week’s 4110 low and April 12th week’s 4100 in jeopardy.

Heading into the last week of April, the price action is once again being favored bullish as it is gearing towards an all-time highs close in order to cement momentum for the monthly closing. 

Last week fulfilled the 4185 target and the bull train is doing a high level consolidation. We’re still expecting our higher-end 4200 target to be hit as we head into the monthly closing print.

We need 4200 target to be fulfilled in order to confirm the next high probability on-trend targets such as 4215-4220, 4238…etc.

At this point, short-term must hold levels are 4150 and 4127 derived from last Friday, BTFD favored for this entire week when price action trending above these levels. Adapt accordingly.

The current structure and context of this bull train is that the daily price action has been trending above the daily 20EMA since the first week of March.

Then, this trend accelerated on April 1st when the price action broke above the multi-week resistance of 3950s-3970s the propelled the bull train to ride on top of the daily 8EMA for almost an entire month now

Please note it’s a very important week for mega + large cap earnings this week with TSLA on Monday, GOOGL, MSFT, AMD, and V on Tuesday, AAPL, FB, SHOP on Weds, AMZN and MCD on Thurs, and ABBV and XOM on Fri…alongside with many smaller names.

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Ricky Wen is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where he writes a nightly market column and hosts the ES Trade Alerts premium subscription service.