Eye on 262-265 Support in SPY

The SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) has four potential paths, according to our Bayesian timing system.

In the first potential path, which has a Bayesian Probability (BP) percentage of 30%, the SPY chops around 275ish (plus and minus 1%) and then pushes to 288-290.  It then comes back down to 262-265 before the “correction is over."  

In the second scenario, with a BP of 29%, the SPY moves more directly to 283-286 and then back down to 262-265 before the “correction is over”. 

The third possible path, with a BP of 16%, sees the SPY breaking 272 and then 265 and then pressing more directly into the high 250s.  After that, the “correction is over” with a general move higher beginning that is multi-week to multi-month in duration

In the last path, with a BP of 25%, a bear market of sorts has begun dropping well below 250 (with no immediate recovery). This path is expected to last months and have bearish attributes of a 20%-30% correction from the all-time highs.

A vibration window -- moment in time that serves as resistance or support in price, usually manifesting as a relative high or low in price -- was confirmed for Nov 9-13, and a relative low was seen on Nov 13.  All things considered, the reaction on Nov 14 should point to Paths 1 or 2 with at least a bounce higher (like vibration windows have a tendency to do).
 
Important dates remain centered on the week of Nov 19 -- it will most likely be a spike high or low looking at the analysis at this moment.
  
Bottom line:  Note the importance of the 262-265 range in Paths (1) and (2), which is above the low of the last month in the 259s – that seems like an important zone for this bull market remaining intact. 

Luke Miller, who has developed a Bayesian timing system for trading the stock market, hosts two Bayesian timing premium services at ElliottWaveTrader.