Eye SPY Long

With the SPDR S&P 500 ETF(SPY) spiking down to the pivotal 184-185 level on August 14, the Bayesian Timing System (BTS) determined the risk-reward set up was there for a long signal.  If this general area holds, then odds support a multi-week to multi-month rally to new ATHs.  

SPY levels to keep an eye on, and please note this is a potential strong basing area so volatility will prevail: SPY support down to 278-279 and resistance at 287-290, which we are approaching.

In metals, the Gold Miners ETF (GDX) resistance is in the 29s.  It feels more like the index is topping or at a last gasp at the moment.  Risk return doesn’t justify a position presently.  On the downside there is the support at 27 and then 23-24.

In oil, the United States Oil Fund (USO) low at 10.50 from August 7 is showing more support that you’d expect.  And similar to indices, if this is basing above 10.50 then expect a lot of volatility (already getting that) and a chance to get long for a longer term hold sooner than later.  Support 11.10, resistance at 11.75.

In the dollar, our multi-week view is bearish. The US Dollar Index Fund (UUP) needs to get back below 26.10 for more immediate downside.  It was drawn towards 26.50-ish and has been there for quite some time without breaking through.

Aug16AviBayesDXY
Aug16AviBayesDXY
Aug16AviBayesGDX
Aug16AviBayesGDX
Aug16AviBayesSPY
Aug16AviBayesSPY
Aug16AviBayesUSO
Aug16AviBayesUSO
Luke Miller, who has developed a Bayesian timing system for trading the stock market, hosts two Bayesian timing premium services at ElliottWaveTrader.