Extreme Event Watch - Market Analysis for Mar 31st, 2022

Extreme Event Watch:

The mood pattern for the next few days is quite intense.  The pattern shows an increased emphasis on pushing agendas forward, whatever it takes, whatever the cost.  Perhaps this reflects a new Ukraine-Russia development. That would fit, but doesn't rule out something else.  This does warrant an "extreme event watch" through at least Saturday.

Our more protracted bearish outlook went into effect due to March closing above the more moderate cutoff range.  The long term and intermediate trend indicators don't yet concur and are still pointing up.  If the longer term forecast is correct, that should be changing momentarily.  For now, they are still saying, "not yet."  

The MarketMood Indicator vs. S&P 500 daily charts are shown below:

MMI vs. S&P 500 daily 

MMI2 vs S&P 500 daily

** MMI 2 uses an alternate dynamic algorithm to convert the same sentiment source data to S&P direction that the original MMI algorithm uses.

Dr. Cari Bourette is an analyst at ElliottWaveTrader.net, where she provides her proprietary market mood analysis in our flagship service, "Avi's Market Alerts."