Last night I interrupted the regularly scheduled program to give members the bear view and am now back to regular programming. The market has moved very little today and with Bitcoin I have nothing to add. However, I have Ether over resistance for wave 4 and now prefer the bottom complete ideally in, unless it is taking the red bearish path. I discuss this further below. Also, I have updated notes on GBTC's micro.
This is still consistent with posts over the last week:
We should be in circle-c of 4 as shown and a new low targets $9600 to $9200. A strong move over $10,640 will push me to watch for a more solid bottom without one more low.
Ether has pushed over $373 and has not seen rejection. In fact, it appears to be consolidating for another push higher. Therefore I prefer not to see another low, though the push off our lows is corrective in the most orthodox perspective. So, I am watching for a diagonal as shown. Ideally we see five waves at $410. If after that is seen, I'll mark support for a pullback in the next degree wave 2 which should setup breakout. However, rallying in three waves here, failing to see a fifth, would be cause to prefer the bearish red circle-2, all the more if it rallies over $450.
I removed the bearish note I've included in this section over the last month as our bull and bear paths are quite clear.
No change today:
We continue to rally in what looks like b of (iv). We can easily reach .037 in this B wave. Note this may only be the A wave of a larger B wave. B waves can become quite complex. Until we see an impulsive setup for C, I'll assume chop and complexity.
GBTC saw strong downward pressure late in the day, even as the coins stayed aloft, suggesting circle-iv completed. If we fail to breakdown and instead turn over $12.26 I'll watch the orange diagonal. This structure is akin to Ether's diagonal, and also must be watched for failure in three waves as that would be indicative of the red path.