ETF Watch: What Our Bayesian Signals Indicate for GLD, USO, UNG, XBI, XLF and more.

Here is our Bayesian Timing System (BTS) analysis on the precious metals ETFs (GDX, GLD, SLV) as well as the dollar (UUP), oil (USO), natural gas (UNG), biotech (XBI), VIX (VXXB), financials (XLF), and Treasuries (TLT).

The BTS is neutral on metals -- GDX, GLD, SLV -- as they work on some type of top into a correction into the week of Feb 11.  The more corrective this drop appears, the more the Bayesian probabilities build for a long signal next week that would target higher prices into March.  Bottom line:  The train hasn’t left the station for bulls; and one more quality entry should present themselves with very good RR attributes by the end of next week. 

UUP: Signal Short.  The important 25.60-ish level still determines the path higher or lower and at the moment, UUP is challenging this BP resistance from below and failed at the micro level on 1/25.

USO: Signal Short.  Here are the BP paths: (1) [BP=21%] USO continues to push higher as though the train left the station, (2) [BP=46%] USO grinds higher, before a quick move down back into the mid 9s, and (3) [BP=33%] USO has a surprise trap door into the 8s.  On the micro level, a BP cluster resides at 11.35-ish for the bears to get back in the game more imminently. 

UNG: Signal Long. If this BP path proves out, then a shot back above 30-35 is in the cards…. A bottoming/reversal is expected the week of 2/4 headed into next week.  From a bullish lens there are two paths to keep an eye on, of which both could occur: (1) UNG forms a false break of the 24 level, of which was broken on 2/4 – we are looking for 1-3 days below 24 and then a gap and run higher to begin and/or (2) From a BP cluster perspective an aggressive sharp spike into 22.75-23.25 could occur over the next week and then we rip higher for several weeks or more with an initial target at 30. 

XBI: Signal Short.  The most recent vibration window high zone continues to deter the bulls and on 2/5 it again served to reign in an attempted break higher; on the micro level there is getting below 82.75 and then 81to get that traction lower.  Waiting for clues in this range…

VXXB: Signal Long.  VXX’s replacement is VXXB – which triggered long on 1/28 using a hybrid mix of VXX and VXXB data.  On the micro level, getting above 34.50 should get the ball rolling; on the support side there is a BP support cluster in the 32.75-33.25 that was hit on 2/5 and 2/6 –a turn higher for the next several weeks is most likely with a target in the 45-ish range...

XLF: Signal Short.  Given the struggling uptrend over the last week, XLF continues to be stuck in no man’s land; and an ending diagonal seems like the most likely resolution to begin this week, with an initial target near 24.50-ish. 

TLT: Signal Long.  Simply put, the price pattern was the most attractive thing for this long signal – with the pattern since the 1/18 low presenting as a leading diagonal and the low on 2/4 as the deep retrace and then bounce higher into 2/5… upside BP cluster at 123-124 is in play and back below 120 is not ideal for the bulls.

Luke Miller, who has developed a Bayesian timing system for trading the stock market, hosts two Bayesian timing premium services at ElliottWaveTrader.