ETF Watch:  SPY Basing, Oil Topping

In the U.S. equity indices, the basing between 270-273 continues on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). While risk to the 266 area remains, a strong trend higher is still the most likely path once this congestion resolves itself. 

On a micro level getting sustainably above 274, and even more so above 275, has a good probability of getting to at least the mid-280's.

In oil, our Bayesian timing analysis sees a "vibration window" (a moment in time that serves as price resistance or support) this week with an expected topping in the US Oil ETF (USO).  Our targets are in the low 12's and possibly the low 11's once this bullish sentiment clears out.  

Metals continue to hang onto their bullish potential with the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) maintaining above their important levels. A vibration low in SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was triggered on June 28 at 118.01 and in GDX at 21.77.  

The vibration low was violated on July 2, although we determined it would initially be a false break lower and thus kept the long signal intact.  Action on July 3 showed this false break potential with a move back above the 118.  We still expect a strong rally with a tradable potential to match the December 2015 launch.  IF this bottom is put in, then the price cluster at GLD 133-135 is the multi-week target. On a micro level, there are GLD resistance levels of 118.75 and 119.65. 
  
In natural gas, the United States Natural Gas (UNG) was unable to get through 24 yet again, and now trades back into the 23's.  No real damage has been done yet, as the low 23s was strong resistance and should prove to be strong support now.  Higher targets are still expected into 25, and now looks like 28 could happen if things keep building.  

In agriculture, the Invesco DB Agriculture (DBA) really needs to close above 18.05 to get the ball rolling uphill.

In financials, the Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) is still working its way back to 27.  Staying above the recent lows in the 26.30's keeps the false break of the last week intact.  Getting back above 27 should set a strong rebound.
  
The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) is still basing in the 42's.  On a micro level getting back above 43.65 should be enough to get above 44.25 which then points to a minimum bounce to 46.  Over 46, and the mid-48's seem very doable. 
 
Invesco DB US Dollar Bullish (UUP) looks like it is getting "tired" at these heights.  Initial target is 24.75 and then the low 24s.

The SPDR S&P Metals and Mining ETF (XME) is still bouncing around the signal trigger price with targets still near 37, with a several week target of 38.50.

The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is still basing near the signal trigger price.  Getting above 105.50 will help confirm it.

Luke Miller, who has developed a Bayesian timing system for trading the stock market, hosts two Bayesian timing premium services at ElliottWaveTrader.