Does Crude Oil Signal a Mood for War?

The news can be a part of the story that goes along with where the market was already heading, but it's the mood or sentiment that is the cause.  I've noticed over the years that when crude is pointing up and the market is pointing down (per the mood generated forecast) that this is usually accompanied by Middle East geopolitical escalation.  That's why I said in Sunday's report, "The {crude} chart implies at least the potential of a large bullish turnaround. Gearing up for some Iran/Syria news, maybe?"  There were already tensions when I posted that, but as long as I've been watching this, it appears that crude always goes up first before military action is taken (in the Middle East).  This is the Socionomic premise: mood => markets => news. 

We like to have a reason why to explain what is happening in the markets.  If there is a final spike in crude and sharp drop in the stock market, perhaps it will be blamed on concerns about WWIII.  Yet, Avi was posting months ago about a 4th wave that would look like a scary crash.  Was he psychic?  It's simply that it's the pattern of things.  

Elliott Wave Theory can tell you that at some point soon a large, sharp bearish move is likely.  These stock market patterns are displays of the general shape of our collective ups and downs.  At some point prior to major news or the next big market move, it will start to show up in what we are collectively focusing on, e.g. internet search trends.  The MarketMood model uses an algorithm to convert this into expected market movement for the stock market, gold, oil, and the U.S. Dollar.  The market will then reflect the social mood in how it moves, and finally, the news will conveniently provide a background story to give us a reason why (because we like to point to something "out there" as to why these things are happening).  Yet, wars will happen, it seems, only when the mood is right. 

Market moves, mass casualty events, epidemics, and even natural disasters appear to follow the mood, not precede it.  I don't know that it can be stated unequivocally that our mood causes all of these things.  However, it does seem to precede them.  Socionomics, Elliott Waves, and the MarketMood model, are all based on this premise.  Social mood follows general patterns, which can be traced in the market.  Certain types of news are associated with specific mood patterns and Elliott Waves.  News doesn't cause any of it, it's just part of the background story that we point to "out there" to explain what was already in progress.  This is not how we are accustomed to thinking about our world, but it has been demonstrated over and over again, that this is indeed the way of it.  If you want to make news the cause of it, then perhaps you could say, "A possible war action we don't know about yet, will cause crude oil to rise next week, and is causing us to focus on things today that resonate with that on the internet."  If that sounds a bit silly, then just stop saying the news is causing the market to move, or the future news and market moves are causing what we are thinking about or caring about today.  That would be a start.

Dr. Cari Bourette is an analyst at, where she provides her proprietary market mood analysis in our flagship service, "Avi's Market Alerts."