Deeper Correction? - Market Analysis for Sep 23rd, 2026

With the metals turning down today, it has opened the door to a deeper correction. Let’s start with GDX

As the market was rallying yesterday, I warned not to get too bullish just yet as it has not proven its clear bullish intent just yet. In fact, I noted as we were hitting yesterday’s highs that “[i]f anyone wants a little protection in GDX, this is a nice place for it. . .between here and 101.83.”

Since that point, I can count a 5-wave decline into this morning’s low. This now opens the door to a drop to the next support region noted on the 8-minute GDX chart, which represents the .500-.618 retracement of the prior rally. A break of yesterday’s low (at which I suggested as a stop for those that want tighter risk management) would likely point us down to AT LEAST that target. The structure of the decline will tell us if such a decline is the c-wave of wave (2) in blue, or a deeper drop in the heart of the yellow wave 3.

We would need a break out over yesterday’s high to invalidate that set up. Moreover, we still need a break out over the 101.83 level to invalidate the yellow wave count.

As far as gold is concerned, I really do not have a lot to add to that analysis as it is quite sloppy and not providing much in the way of clear trading analysis in its smaller degree move. But, I assume it will follow along with GDX and silver in the coming weeks.

As far as silver is concerned, it has taken a complex step. While there are a few ways to analyze the silver chart right now, I would say the most bearish potential targeting at least the 53.50 region is presented in red on the 5-minute silver chart. This chart suggests a 1-2, i-ii is developing to the downside in the c-wave to lower lows. Of course, the bullish path suggests a wave (ii) with an expanded b-wave flat, as also shown on the 5-minute chart.

But, the problem is that both of these counts show a 5-wave decline from yesterday’s high. That can either be the c-wave of the wave (ii) or the red wave i down. The nature of the next rally will likely add more information. IF the next rally is clearly corrective, then we have a 1-2, i-ii downside set up in place and we likely will see much lower levels for silver in the coming weeks. However, if the next rally is clearly impulsive, then we have greater potential for being in the wave (iii) of wave 1 in the more immediate bullish path.

So, we are clearly at a cross roads right now, and a decision is likely to be seen in the coming days. I will continue to update as I gather more information.