DXY: Strong Showing - Market Analysis for Feb 9th, 2019

With the US Dollar Index (DXY) roaring back this past week, it seems to have forgotten all about the Fed meeting a week ago.  In fact, we are well beyond the point at which the Fed made its announcement which supposedly caused the dollar to drop.  Does that mean the market really does not care what the Fed said?  I will let you decide that yourself.

In the meantime, this current rally looks like a very extended 3rd wave off the recent lows.  That means I am still going to expect a 4-5 to complete this rally begun after the Fed announcement.

However, this 4-5 can either complete a c-wave in an a-b-c consolidation, before heading lower for a deeper b-wave, as presented by the alt-b count on the daily chart, or it can be wave 1 in the c-wave of a rally to the 99 region.  Unfortunately, when dealing with these 3-wave structures, I am unable to tell just yet. 

The decider will be the manner in which the market drops after this 5-wave structure completes.  If the drop is clearly impulsive, then we are likely going to see a deeper b-wave, as presented in yellow.  However, if the next pullback is clearly corrective, then it signals that we have finally begun that rally to the 99 region.

So, for now, I am remain rather neutral in my perspective of the immediate direction for DXY, at least until it shows its hand by the structure of the next drop.

Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.