Cryptos in Final Approach?
By
Ryan Wilday
Final Approach?
Summary:
Both large coins did a great job of staying under resistance, and breaking down today, in what I expect to be 5th of larger 5. So, I have us on final approach, at least for culmination of the pattern I've been watching since the November 13 breakdown. And, since we now only need small degree subwaves to finish this off, I assume we can move through this last approach fairly quickly. Can this end our bear market? As described, I already slightly prefer my 'alt 3' in BTC based on how deep we are. Although, holding $3K keeps my 'primary' valid, certainly, it is questionable based on past wave iv's in Bitcoin. In Ether, I am operating on this being a wave 2 bottom, or perhaps only A of 2. This level is low enough to question the wave 4 thesis. But the question is whether a rally out of the region will push over the hurdles we have above us. Certainly sentiment is bearish 'enough'. Certainly, the short interest is high 'enough'. Certainly, we have flushed 'enough'. But price must prove. And, as every rally out of previous levels I was watching remained anemic and weak, so can it here. So I'll be watching. That said, there is no more R:R for short, without a larger setup, and long, small size, with a stop, is the best approach to this level, unless you want to hold out for a clearly impulsive move and buy the retrace. Which to play is up to you. But short has run its course for now.
Bitcoin:
There were a couple adjustments today in BTC and I now see us heading into the $3200 to $3160 region, barring an extended fifth of this fifth, which is not uncommon. $3325 is the nearest level of resistance but that would only open the door to this c of 5 being a diagonal.
Ethereum:
I don't have micro confluence between my a=c target for 5, and the 1-2 setup in 5. So, I've left micro labels off, but I see a range from $81 to $76 for a bottom. We should stay under $86 now unless we take a diagonal path for C.
ETHBTC is still holding the low, and we may hold that low through this flush. We see that sometimes.
I count a micro 5up in GBTC, and am curious whether it will hold through tonight, if we see Bitcoin come into target tonight, which is possible.
