Could Be The Start

Clearly, the metals complex has been stretched beyond our generally followed standards.  Yet, I still have no way to view a reasonable 4^th wave as being in place in both GDX or gold.  So, for this reason, I am still very much expecting more of a 4^th wave to be seen in the coming weeks and months.  

But, in the meantime, we have to determine when that pullback has begun.  In GDX, I would still need to see a sustained break-down below the 66 region.  Thus far, I have no clear indications the decline has is taking shape as a 5-wave event, which would signal the start of the c-wave down.  So, we will need further information before a determination can be made.

In gold, we still need to see a break-down below the wave iv low in the  in the 3660 region to suggest a larger degree pullback has indeed begun.   And, thus far, while we do not have any indications this decline has begun with an impulsive initiation, we still need more information to gather before an assessment can be made as to the nature of a continued break-down below 3660, assuming we do continue lower in the coming days.

Silver is being very sticky right at our resistance region.  While it did try to break out yesterday, I still do not see a sustained move through resistance to suggest we need to move towards the alternative wave 3 of v of (3).  We will need to take out this region convincingly, and ideally move through the 46 region to make that count much more likely.  But, please remember that should we have to move to that count, we will still see a wave 4 pullback/consolidation before we set our sights on the prior all-time high.

So, in conclusion, while there is initial evidence that a pullback may have begun, we will still need further information in the coming days to make decisions as to how the next rally to take us much higher over the coming months will take shape.