Close, But No Cigar
I wish I could say that something has changed in the picture for the metals this week, but, unfortunately, I would be lying if I did. As it stands now, absolutely nothing has changed since we have no evidence of a bottom being struck. Yet, it seems that we are inching our way closer.
In silver, we still have no evidence of a bottom being struck, as we cannot even claim a leading diagonal off the low yet. We still need to push higher one more time to even consider that potential. And, even if that does happen, we would still need a corrective 2nd wave pullback, with a follow through over the high of wave 1 to confirm that the bullish trend has likely begun.
In the meantime, we have no indications that are even close to silver for either the GLD or GDX. We have no potential 5 waves up yet, so one more lower low is still very much on the table for both those charts.
Again, nothing has really changed in the metals complex this week. While I think we are close to striking major bottoms in the metals complex, we still have no clear evidence that the next bullish trend has yet begun. So, whereas a lower low remains potential in GDX and GLD, silver is the chart which MAY suggest a low has been struck. Therefore, I am still in a wait-and-see mode before I am willing to turn aggressive on the long side in the complex.