Charts on GLD, GDX & More: We Are So Stupid When It Comes To Gold

It is so nice to see everyone following our work and making money in the metals complex.  It really puts such a smile on my face and makes all this so worthwhile.  But, I gotta tell ya . . . too many of you complain while you are making money. 

When gold was rallying strongly, and the miners were rallying strongly, all I heard was complaints about why silver has not rallied.  Then, as silver explodes higher, all I hear is why the miners are not rallying as much. 

Folks, please realize that I stress each chart on its own for a reason.  You will not be seeing every chart rallying or falling in lockstep throughout the complex.  Some will be consolidating while others are rallying and vice versa.  Accept it.  I always use the example of 2011, and you should try to remember it.  In 2011, silver topped 5-6 months before gold did.  In fact, there were days gold was rallying $50 a day and silver was doing very little.  Please keep this in mind at all times.

Moreover, this is the reason our analysts within our EWT Mining Stock service rotate stocks.  As one stock comes into our target region, we trim our holdings in that stock, and then move it to another stock that has not yet struck its target.  So, this action in the complex can be quite profitable if you learn to embrace it.

With regard to the smaller degree wave count, yesterday afternoon, my updates outlined the potential for a nice gap up for today.  So, my smaller degree primary count is seen best from the attached 8-minute GDX chart.  As you can see, wave IV ended on the 1st day of August, and we are now moving through wave V.  Currently, micro support takes us down to just over the 29 region, and as long we hold support, I am looking to continue to our next micro target in the 30.70-30.90 region. 

That means that I am still expecting us to rally up towards the 32/33 region, which aligns quite well within our daily chart.  But, we will have to hold support on each pullback as we continue higher.  For this reason, I have been highlighting the support levels for each segment of this rally.  Should a support break, it will be an early warning to the potential that this rally is really part of a diagonal for a much bigger wave [1] of 3, which will push off the parabolic phase of this rally out until 2020.  You can see an example of this as the yellow count on the attached GOLD chart.

As far as GLD, I want to see us continue up towards at least the 144 region for wave V of (3), with silver pointing us to at least the 17.35 region, as mentioned before, but more ideally taking us up towards the 18 region. 

So, as long as we continue to respect support on the way up, I still think we have higher to go.  Moreover, I will continue to analyze these charts within a standard impulsive structure until the market breaks one of our supports.  While there are a number of mining stocks that do present in the alternative noted on the GOLD chart, I cannot adopt that count until we see some support breaking on these rallies.

GDX-8min
GDX-8min
GDXdaily
GDXdaily
GLD-daily
GLD-daily
GDXJ
GDXJ
GOLD
GOLD
silver144min
silver144min
Avi Gilburt is founder of ElliottWaveTrader.net.